Saturday, July 10, 2004

about that July/November surprise

Unless they have a solid HVT to announce, I'd expect to start seeing one of two scenarios:

(1) "confirmed" reports that bin Laden is dead, possibly for a long while

(2) "confirmed" reports that bin Laden is in a specific region in Afghanistan, and a US mission is in the process of tracking him down (this option allows for several days of exciting war-like coverage)

I mean, heck, if you're going to tell a story, you might as well hype the highest value target you've got.

We've already seen the Bush Administration's willingness to hype so-called confirmed reports that are advantageous to them, only to whisper "someone lied to us" later on when no one's listening. The only question is whether they can still get away with it. Certainly the initial hype will work for them, but will there be a backlash later?