Thursday, August 19, 2004

keynote zell

I'm a little surprised the RNC considers Dem senator Zell Miller to be their highest value speaker. I'm not really sure what they think it accomplishes.

The general media opinion seems to be that Zell on the speaker list is an attempt to show how big the Bush tent is. But it strikes me more as fingerpoke in the Dem eye, possibly in response to the perceived coup of Ron Reagan at the Dem convention. And unlike Reagan, less of a substantive statement than a cheap prank. It may be that they plan to use Miller's standard refrain to underscore some message about the irrelevance of the modern Democratic Party. But if that rises to the level of a keynote message, I really have to question their strategy.

As far as I can tell, there are very few Democrat voters crossing--or likely to cross--over to the Repubs in this election. The migration seems much stronger in the opposite direction. (While several congresspeople have gone over to the dark side recently--just kidding!--their timing alone makes me suspect their decision is driven more by desire for power in Congress than ideology.)

And speaking of going over to the dark side...anyone taking bets on when and in what circumstances Miller will switch sides after the election? I think its a pretty sure thing if the Repubs retain control of the Senate or if the Dems regain with a margin of 1. If the Dems regain with a greater margin (taking into account Edwards as VP tiebreaker), the situation gets more problematic.